Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
